Correction and editorial revision — 23 October 2026: This retrospective replaces the earlier mixed-time narrative with dated provider observations. The original OPEC event and durable price-ceiling conclusions are not established by the retained evidence. The earlier causal explanations and trading implications are withdrawn; their removal is not a finding that every cited event was false. The original input file is unavailable. The cutoff below is the calendar day before the original publication date, selected for this reconstruction; it is not a claim about what was known when the original article was written.
This archive review uses observations available in the retrieved daily history on or before 2026-05-01. Each market has its own closing time. The question is: Did the Quoted Oil Price Establish a Supply Ceiling?
The measured comparison
WTI futures moved from $105.07 on 2026-04-30 to $101.94 on 2026-05-01: -2.98%, or $-3.13 per barrel in the quoted series. The five-interval change from 2026-04-24 was +7.99%. WTI futures history.
The US 10-year yield proxy changed -1.2 basis points over 2026-04-30–2026-05-01, while gold futures changed +0.32% over 2026-04-30–2026-05-01. These observations do not quantify lost production, shipping capacity or an inflation pass-through. An oil-price change cannot on its own separate a supply effect, a demand effect and futures-contract effects.
Reproducing the longer comparison
For WTI futures, the five-interval baseline is 94.40 on 2026-04-24; the endpoint is 101.94 on 2026-05-01. The calculation is (endpoint ÷ baseline − 1) × 100 = +7.99%. This uses the endpoints directly rather than adding rounded daily percentages. Five observations need not correspond to one calendar week when a market is closed.
Source-linked daily observations
| Series | Previous date | Previous value | Date | Value | Change | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI (^KS11) | 2026-04-29 | 6,690.90 | 2026-04-30 | 6,598.87 | -1.38% | Asia/Seoul |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 2026-04-30 | 7,209.01 | 2026-05-01 | 7,230.12 | +0.29% | America/New_York |
| Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) | 2026-04-30 | 24,892.31 | 2026-05-01 | 25,114.44 | +0.89% | America/New_York |
| US 10-year yield proxy (^TNX) | 2026-04-30 | 4.390 | 2026-05-01 | 4.378 | -1.2 bp | America/Chicago |
| WTI futures (CL=F) | 2026-04-30 | 105.07 | 2026-05-01 | 101.94 | -2.98% | America/New_York |
| Gold futures (GC=F) | 2026-04-30 | 4,629.60 | 2026-05-01 | 4,644.50 | +0.32% | America/New_York |
| USD/KRW (USDKRW=X) | 2026-04-30 | 1,487.38 | 2026-05-01 | 1,474.01 | -0.90% | Europe/London |
| USD/JPY (USDJPY=X) | 2026-04-30 | 160.18 | 2026-05-01 | 156.98 | -2.00% | Europe/London |
| VIX (^VIX) | 2026-04-30 | 16.89 | 2026-05-01 | 16.99 | +0.59% | America/Chicago |
Scope and limitations
Returns are calculated before rounding from Yahoo Finance daily history, not independently verified exchange settlement records. Index values are in points; the yield proxy is quoted in percent; currency quotes are local units per US dollar; gold and WTI futures are dollars per ounce and barrel. Futures-series changes can reflect contract rolls and are not a continuously held contract’s investment return. These are retrospective observations, not live prices or a reconstruction of every intraday quote available to the original author.
For the underlying method, see the Hormuz evidence and import-cost guide. This page retains its original address for correction transparency. The title and text now reflect the narrower evidence available; the old URL wording should not be treated as a current claim. No trading instruction is retained.
