US & Fed

US monetary policy, Federal Reserve decisions, economic indicators, and dollar dynamics.

Treasury Selloff Accelerates as Real Yields Reclaim Narrative from Geopolitics

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The 10-year Treasury yield surged 14 basis points to 4.29% on April 21st, the sharpest single-day move in seven weeks, while the VIX climbed just 5.14% to 19.84—barely above its long-term median. That divergence tells you everything: the geopolitical risk premium that dominated last week’s trading is already fading, and the bond market’s structural problem … Read more

Nasdaq’s Three-Percent Rally Defies Rising Real Yields—Here’s Why It Won’t Last

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The Nasdaq surged 2.92% yesterday while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 14 basis points to 4.28%, a combination that shouldn’t exist in the same universe according to the logic that has governed markets for the past eighteen months. Duration-sensitive growth stocks are supposed to crater when real yields spike, yet here we are watching mega-cap … Read more