Hormuz Rhetoric Rises, but Markets Price Calm

Hormuz Rhetoric Rises, but Markets Price Calm

The Setup Headlines out of the Gulf are tense again. Reporting on July 11 highlighted renewed Iran-US rhetoric with Hormuz shipping back in focus, following an exchange of attacks and threats, though analysts quoted in that coverage noted the door to diplomacy remains open. In a quarter where the Strait of Hormuz has repeatedly resurfaced … Read more

Iran at Day 117: Oil Falls While Seoul’s Market Flashes Warning

Iran at Day 117: Oil Falls While Seoul's Market Flashes Warning

Lead: $72.16 — The Number That Cuts Against the Headline WTI crude closed the June 24 session at $72.16 a barrel, down 1.43% on the day. That single figure demands explanation. Iran’s war is in its 117th day. Negotiators are in open dispute over nuclear inspection terms. The Strait of Hormuz — through which more … Read more

Trump-Xi Summit Risks Taiwan Concessions to Reopen Hormuz Strait

The most dangerous negotiation in global markets right now isn’t happening in Vienna or Washington—it’s unfolding between Trump and Xi over the Strait of Hormuz, and the price China is reportedly asking could reshape the entire Asia-Pacific security architecture. With WTI crude holding above $101 despite a minor 0.68% pullback today, markets are underpricing the … Read more

Hormuz Saber-Rattling and $95 Oil: The Supply Risk Markets Are Mispricing

Iran just reminded the world that the Strait of Hormuz—through which 21 million barrels of oil per day flow, roughly 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption—remains a single-decision choke point. A senior Iranian politician this week described closure of the strait as “on the level of an atomic bomb” for the global economy, while US-Iran … Read more