What Happened US markets sent a mixed but telling signal today. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.78%, up about 2 basis points, while the dollar softened noticeably against both the yen and the won: USD/JPY fell 1.7% to 156.22, and USD/KRW dropped 0.91% to 1,345.99. Yet US equities did not flinch. The S&P 500 … Read more
The Setup US markets opened the new month on the back foot. The S&P 500 slipped 0.66% to 7,679.97 and the Nasdaq fell 0.88% to 26,308.50, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4 basis points to 4.76%, a 0.76% move that put renewed pressure on rate-sensitive corners of the market. The VIX jumped 4.57% to … Read more
What Happened US Treasury yields eased again on August 14, with the 10-year note falling 4 basis points to 4.64%. Risk assets took the move in stride: the S&P 500 added 0.81% to close at 7,790.49 and the Nasdaq climbed 1.27% to 26,782.38, while the VIX ticked up marginally to 14.7 — still a level … Read more
Lead: The Number That Matters Today The US 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.58% on Wednesday, adding 5 basis points in a session where almost nothing moved in the direction rate-cut optimists would have preferred. That single figure matters beyond the bond market: when the benchmark yield drifts higher while equities sell off and volatility … Read more
What Happened Friday closed with asset classes pulling in sharply different directions. Gold rose 1.51% to $4,091.20 per troy ounce — a level that marks an extraordinary revaluation of the metal relative to its long-run history. At the same time, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.59% to $69.34 a barrel, a single-session move large enough … Read more
The Fed’s worst nightmare just became more probable: sticky energy-driven inflation forcing a policy error. US inflation data released overnight clocked in at a new three-year high, sending the 10-year Treasury yield rocketing 14 basis points to 4.56% and triggering a decisive 2.10% selloff in the Nasdaq. This isn’t just another CPI beat—the VIX climbing … Read more
The Federal Reserve now faces the nightmare scenario it spent two years trying to avoid: accelerating inflation colliding with slowing growth. April’s CPI data—coming in hot as oil prices surge past $100—locks the Fed into a policy trap where both cutting and holding rates carry material risks to financial stability. The market is beginning to … Read more