The Setup Markets are digesting two threads at once on August 29: a fresh flare-up of violence in the West Bank, where an Israeli strike killed three Palestinians in Jenin according to Reuters and Al Jazeera, and a notably hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned that inflation progress remains insufficient … Read more
The Move The dominant cross-asset story right now isn’t centered in Frankfurt, but its consequences are landing squarely on European policymakers’ desks. Reuters and Al Jazeera report that US inflation stayed sticky in July, with the outlet tying the persistence directly to energy prices that have spiraled since the US and Israel struck Iran. That’s … Read more
The Move US Treasuries firmed on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.64%, as traders leaned further into expectations that the Federal Reserve’s easing path continues in the months ahead. Gold pushed to $4,701.60, up 1.31% on the day, tracking the move lower in real yields. Equities were comparatively muted in … Read more
The Setup Global markets spent the session digesting a firmer move in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year up 6 basis points to 4.71%, even as risk gauges stayed unusually calm — the VIX rose 6.78% but only to 15.9, still a low-stress reading by historical standards. For euro-area watchers, the relevant question is less … Read more
The Move US markets spent August 20 sending a fairly calm signal even as one of its neighbors sent an alarming one. The 10-year Treasury yield eased 4 basis points to 4.67%, the S&P 500 slipped a modest 0.39% to 7,715.17, and the VIX actually fell 3.85% to 15.23 — hardly the profile of a … Read more
The Setup Crude oil is essentially flat today, with WTI holding at $82.40 a barrel. That stillness is notable given the backdrop: ongoing violence in the occupied West Bank, where Israeli settlers and soldiers have besieged the town of Qusra for eight days, cutting off water and aid to trapped families, according to Al Jazeera. … Read more
Lead: the single most important number today The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.70%, up roughly 6 basis points on the session, a move that reverberates well beyond US shores into how European investors price everything from Bund spreads to the euro itself. Global yields tend to move together at the margin, and a … Read more
What Happened US Treasury yields eased again on August 14, with the 10-year note falling 4 basis points to 4.64%. Risk assets took the move in stride: the S&P 500 added 0.81% to close at 7,790.49 and the Nasdaq climbed 1.27% to 26,782.38, while the VIX ticked up marginally to 14.7 — still a level … Read more
What Happened Gold climbed 1.71% to $4,436.30 on the day, while the US 10-year Treasury yield eased roughly 1 basis point to 4.69%. The dollar softened against both the Japanese yen and Korean won, with USD/JPY up 0.90% to 159.32 and USD/KRW up 0.42% to 1,412.85 — moves that reflect broad-based dollar weakness rather than … Read more
The Setup Crude oil moved sharply higher on August 11, with WTI climbing 4.73% to $81.88 a barrel, even as broader risk sentiment stayed remarkably composed. The S&P 500 added 0.54% to close at a record 7,751.27, the Nasdaq gained 0.9% to 26,585.56, and the VIX ticked up only modestly to 15.29 — still a … Read more