Correction and editorial revision — 23 October 2026: This retrospective replaces the earlier mixed-time narrative with dated provider observations. The event sequence, historical analogy and escalation predictions were not substantiated by retained sources. The earlier causal explanations and trading implications are withdrawn; their removal is not a finding that every cited event was false. The original input file is unavailable. The cutoff below is the calendar day before the original publication date, selected for this reconstruction; it is not a claim about what was known when the original article was written.
This archive review uses observations available in the retrieved daily history on or before 2026-03-25. Each market has its own closing time. The question is: Can Daily Prices Verify a Geopolitical Escalation Thesis?
The measured comparison
WTI futures moved from $92.35 on 2026-03-24 to $90.32 on 2026-03-25: -2.20%, or $-2.03 per barrel in the quoted series. The five-interval change from 2026-03-18 was -6.23%. WTI futures history.
The US 10-year yield proxy changed -6.4 basis points over 2026-03-24–2026-03-25, while gold futures changed +3.41% over 2026-03-24–2026-03-25. These observations do not quantify lost production, shipping capacity or an inflation pass-through. An oil-price change cannot on its own separate a supply effect, a demand effect and futures-contract effects.
Reproducing the longer comparison
For WTI futures, the five-interval baseline is 96.32 on 2026-03-18; the endpoint is 90.32 on 2026-03-25. The calculation is (endpoint ÷ baseline − 1) × 100 = -6.23%. This uses the endpoints directly rather than adding rounded daily percentages. Five observations need not correspond to one calendar week when a market is closed.
Source-linked daily observations
| Series | Previous date | Previous value | Date | Value | Change | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI (^KS11) | 2026-03-24 | 5,553.92 | 2026-03-25 | 5,642.21 | +1.59% | Asia/Seoul |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 2026-03-24 | 6,556.37 | 2026-03-25 | 6,591.90 | +0.54% | America/New_York |
| Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) | 2026-03-24 | 21,761.89 | 2026-03-25 | 21,929.82 | +0.77% | America/New_York |
| US 10-year yield proxy (^TNX) | 2026-03-24 | 4.392 | 2026-03-25 | 4.328 | -6.4 bp | America/Chicago |
| WTI futures (CL=F) | 2026-03-24 | 92.35 | 2026-03-25 | 90.32 | -2.20% | America/New_York |
| Gold futures (GC=F) | 2026-03-24 | 4,402.00 | 2026-03-25 | 4,552.30 | +3.41% | America/New_York |
| USD/KRW (USDKRW=X) | 2026-03-24 | 1,485.36 | 2026-03-25 | 1,497.31 | +0.80% | Europe/London |
| USD/JPY (USDJPY=X) | 2026-03-24 | 158.48 | 2026-03-25 | 158.72 | +0.15% | Europe/London |
| VIX (^VIX) | 2026-03-24 | 26.95 | 2026-03-25 | 25.33 | -6.01% | America/Chicago |
Scope and limitations
Returns are calculated before rounding from Yahoo Finance daily history, not independently verified exchange settlement records. Index values are in points; the yield proxy is quoted in percent; currency quotes are local units per US dollar; gold and WTI futures are dollars per ounce and barrel. Futures-series changes can reflect contract rolls and are not a continuously held contract’s investment return. These are retrospective observations, not live prices or a reconstruction of every intraday quote available to the original author.
For the underlying method, see the Hormuz evidence and import-cost guide. This page retains its original address for correction transparency. The title and text now reflect the narrower evidence available; the old URL wording should not be treated as a current claim. No trading instruction is retained.
