Correction and editorial revision — 23 October 2026: This retrospective replaces the earlier mixed-time narrative with dated provider observations. Incorrect daily comparisons were used to infer an unmeasured European inflation effect. The earlier causal explanations and trading implications are withdrawn; their removal is not a finding that every cited event was false. Historical closing observations can differ from the intraday quotes used in the earlier version.
This archive review uses observations available in the retrieved daily history on or before 2026-06-26. Each market has its own closing time. The question is: Can Daily Oil Data Measure European Inflation?
What changed in the calculation
- For KOSPI, the archived input reported -0.71%. Matching its quoted value to 2026-06-26 and comparing with 2026-06-25 gives -5.81% in the provider daily series.
- For Nasdaq Composite, the archived input reported -0.70%. Matching its quoted value to 2026-06-26 and comparing with 2026-06-25 gives -0.24% in the provider daily series.
- For Gold futures, the archived input reported +1.63%. Matching its quoted value to 2026-06-26 and comparing with 2026-06-25 gives +1.20% in the provider daily series.
The comparison above concerns the archived input and dated daily history. The table below uses a single stated cutoff with each instrument’s own preceding observation; it does not assert simultaneous prices. For the yield proxy, percentage changes in the quote are distinct from basis-point changes and from bond returns.
The measured comparison
The external reference data show WTI changing -3.74% over 2026-06-25–2026-06-26 and the US 10-year yield proxy changing -2.0 basis points over 2026-06-25–2026-06-26. Across five intervals, WTI changed -9.62% and the yield changed -7.9 basis points. WTI futures history; US 10-year yield proxy history.
No EUR/USD, euro-area inflation, German yield or Italian yield series was collected for this reconstruction. It therefore cannot establish a euro move, a Bund-BTP spread change or an ECB decision. Dollar crude prices are not a European consumer-price index. A European conclusion would require those missing observations and a matching reference period; the table is explicitly an external-market comparison.
Reproducing the longer comparison
For WTI futures, the five-interval baseline is 76.60 on 2026-06-18; the endpoint is 69.23 on 2026-06-26. The calculation is (endpoint ÷ baseline − 1) × 100 = -9.62%. This uses the endpoints directly rather than adding rounded daily percentages. Five observations need not correspond to one calendar week when a market is closed.
Source-linked daily observations
| Series | Previous date | Previous value | Date | Value | Change | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI (^KS11) | 2026-06-25 | 8,930.30 | 2026-06-26 | 8,411.21 | -5.81% | Asia/Seoul |
| S&P 500 (^GSPC) | 2026-06-25 | 7,357.49 | 2026-06-26 | 7,354.02 | -0.05% | America/New_York |
| Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) | 2026-06-25 | 25,358.60 | 2026-06-26 | 25,297.62 | -0.24% | America/New_York |
| US 10-year yield proxy (^TNX) | 2026-06-25 | 4.392 | 2026-06-26 | 4.372 | -2.0 bp | America/Chicago |
| WTI futures (CL=F) | 2026-06-25 | 71.92 | 2026-06-26 | 69.23 | -3.74% | America/New_York |
| Gold futures (GC=F) | 2026-06-25 | 4,047.60 | 2026-06-26 | 4,096.30 | +1.20% | America/New_York |
| USD/KRW (USDKRW=X) | 2026-06-25 | 1,542.76 | 2026-06-26 | 1,546.48 | +0.24% | Europe/London |
| USD/JPY (USDJPY=X) | 2026-06-25 | 161.76 | 2026-06-26 | 161.81 | +0.03% | Europe/London |
| VIX (^VIX) | 2026-06-25 | 18.89 | 2026-06-26 | 18.41 | -2.54% | America/Chicago |
Scope and limitations
Returns are calculated before rounding from Yahoo Finance daily history, not independently verified exchange settlement records. Index values are in points; the yield proxy is quoted in percent; currency quotes are local units per US dollar; gold and WTI futures are dollars per ounce and barrel. Futures-series changes can reflect contract rolls and are not a continuously held contract’s investment return. These are retrospective observations, not live prices or a reconstruction of every intraday quote available to the original author.
For the underlying method, see the Hormuz evidence and import-cost guide. This page retains its original address for correction transparency. The title and text now reflect the narrower evidence available; the old URL wording should not be treated as a current claim. No trading instruction is retained.
